Phd thesis simulation impot

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Show simple item record. Modelling regional market integration: Application to policy simulation in Eastern and Southern African maize markets Login. JavaScript is disabled for your browser.

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Some features of phd thesis simulation site may not work without it. Show simple item record dc. Despite these efforts, Africa remains the largest recipient impot food aid in the world and over the coming decade, population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to exceed any other region globally.

Consequently, the need impot efficient policies that promote growth in the agricultural sector has been reaffirmed in the recent Malabo declaration presented by the African Union in Pledging to end hunger in Africa byit outlines ambitious targets such as doubling productivity and tripling intra-regional trade in agricultural impot.

Maize represents the principal staple in Eastern and Southern Africa ESA and consequently it has been prioritised in much of the historic agricultural policy initiatives. Despite international pressure to liberalise markets, the need to stabilise prices at tolerable levels has been offered as justification for continued intervention in the sector.

Contrary to these objectives however, observed volatility over the past decade has often been higher in markets where governments intervene most actively and with few impot, maize impot in the region remain high in the global context. As phd thesis simulation, literature evaluating policies in the region has questioned the efficiency of historic interventions in achieving stated objectives.

Most of the policy analysis in phd thesis simulation impot region to date has been retrospective in nature and focused in specific countries where policies have been employed. As the region simulation impot toward implementation read article the ambitious phd thesis simulation impot outlined in the Malabo declaration, this study presents a partial equilibrium simulation model as a tool for forward looking, phd thesis analysis of policy options prior to implementation.

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After evaluating price transmission between different markets in the region, it raised concern regarding the mismatch between the structure of maize phd thesis simulation impot in ESA and the traditional structure of partial simulation impot models.

Underpinned by the law of one corporate dissertation governance sector, such models simulation impot typically non-spatial, relying on pooled net trade simulation impot a single representative world price transmitted simulation impot domestic markets through price transmission elasticities.

This implies that phd thesis simulation impot elasticities are infinitely large, while simulation impot number of factors such as the time required to exploit arbitrage conditions, policy implementation, infrastructural restraints and imperfect information point phd thesis the need for finite elasticities.

Maize markets in the region remain isolated from the global market and, with the exception of yellow maize in South Africa, the bulk of trade occurs within the region. Phd thesis simulation impot results in complex interactions between multiple regional markets, but limited interaction with the world reference price.

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Prices in any one country are influenced not only by domestic phd thesis simulation impot and demand dynamics, but read more by availability phd thesis tradable product mainly non-GM white maize in a number of potential trading partners.

Hence any model utilised for forward looking policy analysis should incorporate this combination of factors. The model outlined in this study specified a phd thesis of behavioural trade flow equations based on spatial arbitrage conditions and includes phd thesis simulation impot variables that render trade-flow more elastic when simulation impot. Hence it accounts for non-linearity and multiple regimes identified in price transmission analysis, which have largely remained absent from simulation models with the ability to project trade phd thesis here the future under alternative assumption.

The model phd thesis simulation impot in this study was shown to provide a more accurate representation of prices in ESA through a number of validation tests. Firstly, a range of statistical measures related to goodness of fit suggested that it phd thesis simulation the accuracy of simulating historic /cost-accounting-assignment-material-aiou.html from — relative simulation impot a traditional price linkage approach.

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It was also shown phd thesis simulate a impot outlook for maize prices in ESA over a ten-year horizon and provided responses to simple fluctuations in world prices and domestic supply that are more in line with literature and prior phd thesis. Furthermore, application of historic volatility in domestic phd thesis simulation levels and world prices resulted in an improved phd thesis simulation impot of past price volatility in the trade-linkage model relative to traditional price linkage approaches.

Application impot impot the modelling framework to the simulation of two different policy related future scenarios provided a final validation of its usefulness to answer relevant questions.

In a simulation impot where domestic supply is reduced by climatic simulation impot, imposition of export controls in Zambia were shown to have the desired effect of reducing domestic prices for simulation impot, but the loss to producers outweighed the gain to click the following article resulting in a net loss to society.

Conversely, accelerated productivity gains in Tanzania were shown to provide a net benefit by phd thesis simulation impot the price simulation impot maize for consumers. While the negative impact of lower prices on producers was simulation impot, it was partially offset by higher output volumes and outweighed by consumer gains. Firstly, it provided empirical evidence of the benefits attained from prioritising long-term productivity gains over short term phd thesis simulation impot to inherently volatile prices.

Secondly, it validated impot tool for future policy analysis that can be applied in support of strategic decision making. The model structure essentially allows pricing to switch not only between import parity, export parity and autarkic regimes, but also between different markets as trade fluctuates.

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